China’s $17 Billion U.S. Farm Trade Promise Faces Growing Doubts as Agricultural Purchases Fall to Seven-Year Lows

China’s commitment to purchase billions of dollars in American agricultural products is facing growing scrutiny as new trade data reveal that Chinese imports of U.S. farm goods, excluding soybeans, are approaching their lowest levels in seven years.

According to data, China purchased just $7.2 billion worth of American agricultural products other than soybeans between January and September, raising questions about whether Beijing can fulfill a major trade agreement announced earlier this year.

The slowdown comes as American farmers confront rising production costs, intense international competition and uncertainty over the future of U.S.-China trade relations.

In May, the White House announced that China had agreed to purchase $17 billion annually in American agricultural products beginning in 2026, with a reduced target for the first year.

The commitment was separate from an earlier agreement requiring China to increase purchases of U.S. soybeans. While Beijing appears on track to meet its soybean obligations, purchases of other agricultural commodities have remained significantly weaker.

The $7.2 billion recorded during the first nine months represents the lowest comparable figure since 2019, when trade tensions between Washington and Beijing severely disrupted agricultural exports.

However, whether China has formally violated its commitment remains uncertain. U.S. officials have not clarified whether the agreement’s implementation period began in May or depends on proposed tariff reductions that have not yet been finalized.

The disappointing trade figures arrive at a difficult moment for agricultural producers across the United States. Farmers are struggling with high fuel prices, expensive operating costs and uncertain export demand.

For growers of corn, sorghum and livestock products, China’s limited purchases have reduced expectations of a significant recovery in overseas sales. Tim Lust, chief executive of the National Sorghum Producers, expressed frustration that agricultural trade has not expanded beyond soybeans.

Industry representatives argue that stronger and more predictable Chinese demand would help farmers manage inventories, stabilize revenues and make long-term production decisions. The issue has also gained political importance ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with both major parties competing for support in agricultural states.

China’s limited demand reflects more than diplomatic tensions. The country has substantial domestic corn supplies, reducing its need for imported grain.

In 2021, China purchased approximately $5.6 billion in corn, representing nearly 20 million metric tons. However, analysts now expect substantially lower U.S. corn shipments during the 2026–2027 marketing year.

Sorghum exporters face another challenge: Brazil. After gaining greater access to the Chinese market in 2025, Brazilian producers expanded shipments and intensified competition with American suppliers.

Although U.S. sorghum exports improved earlier in 2026, recent sales have slowed considerably. American beef, pork and poultry exporters are also experiencing difficulties. China’s domestic pork and poultry supplies remain abundant, reducing demand for imported meat.

Meanwhile, relatively high U.S. beef prices have weakened competitiveness. Regulatory restrictions have created additional obstacles, even after China renewed export authorizations for hundreds of American beef-processing facilities.

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation, facilities representing approximately half of American fed-cattle slaughter capacity remain ineligible to export to China.

These challenges make a rapid increase in agricultural purchases difficult under ordinary market conditions. Trade analysts believe China may need to direct state-owned enterprises to purchase additional American commodities to fulfill its commitment.

Such intervention could increase imports even when commercial demand remains weak. However, that decision would depend heavily on Beijing’s political priorities and the broader relationship between the two countries.

The uncertainty highlights the difference between announcing trade commitments and translating them into measurable economic benefits. For American farmers, the central question is whether China’s $17 billion promise will produce sustained agricultural exports or remain another uncertain chapter in the economic relationship between the world’s two largest economies.